Bitcoin establishes new record high

Since the substantial correction in early April, Bitcoin has delivered gains across seven consecutive weeks, representing the longest winning streak since December 2024. Last week’s rally was primarily driven by US dollar weakness and favourable regulatory developments. Last week, both US and Hong Kong authorities advanced their efforts to establish comprehensive regulatory frameworks for stablecoins by defining requirements in areas including reserve asset management and anti-money laundering protocols, facilitating broader cryptocurrency adoption.

The minimal resistance encountered at the previous record high of $109,576 demonstrates exceptionally strong upward momentum. Additionally, profit-taking volume was reported to be less than half of that observed when Bitcoin first reached $100,000 in December, providing further evidence of sustained investor confidence.

Technical analysis suggests Bitcoin’s bullish trend is likely to continue, though a short-term technical correction may occur with support anticipated around $102,000-$102,500, given elevated valuations and excessively bullish market sentiment. The relative strength index (RSI) has exceeded the 70 threshold, while the Crypto Fear and Greed Index registers ‘extreme greed’ levels, indicating overbought conditions. A 100% Fibonacci extension of the uptrend between September and December 2024 suggests the cryptocurrency could potentially advance towards $130,000.

An additional noteworthy development is the significant underperformance of Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency. Year-to-date, Bitcoin has returned over 18%, while Ether has declined 21%. While Bitcoin has established a new price record, Ether continues trading 45% below its all-time high achieved in November 2021. We may observe a narrowing of this performance divergence.

Figure 3: Bitcoin (daily) price chart



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