A subtle but decisive shift is stirring the global markets. The traditional pillars of finance are losing their aura, while assets once considered marginal are gaining legitimacy. Indeed, growing distrust towards sovereign debts is shaking the bond market, once a foundation of stability. In this climate of uncertainty, one question arises: Bitcoin, often labeled speculative, might it be establishing itself as a true safe haven?

The Bond Divide Challenges the Pillars of Global Finance

French bonds are losing credibility, in a context where their status as a safe haven is being questioned by the markets. Currently, this is the case for the United States and other developed countries. On May 22, the 30-year bond yield reached 5.15 %, a peak since October 2023. Yields are also rising in Japan, global growth is slowing, and US consumer confidence has reached historically low levels.

This unstable context, which would have once caused Bitcoin to fall, today seems to fuel its rise. At the same time, the gap between 5-year and 30-year bonds has exceeded 1 %, an unprecedented level since October 2021.

This signal reflects a profound revision of economic expectations :

• Sustained growth ;
• Persistent inflation ;
• Maintaining interest rates at high levels for a prolonged period.

The cost of US debt is exploding, with interest costs estimated at 952 billion dollars as early as 2025, on a total debt that has surpassed the 36.8 trillion dollar mark.

The situation is all the more worrying as the United States is not alone. Japan, the main foreign holder of US Treasury bonds at 1.13 trillion dollars, also sees its rates rising.

The Bank of Japan raised its key interest rate from -0.1 % to 0.5 % in March 2024, ending decades of ultra-low rate policy. Since then, long-term yields have tightened: the 30-year rate reached 3.1 %, an all-time high, while the 20-year climbed to 2.53 %, a level unseen since 1999.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba even declared before parliament that his country’s budgetary situation was “worse than Greece’s,” a heavy statement for a country whose debt reaches 260% of GDP. This context nurtures widespread distrust of sovereign debt, including that of the most developed economies.

Bitcoin Attracts Capital in Search of Neutrality and Resilience

While government bonds struggle to fulfill their role as a safe haven, Bitcoin is now drawing massive institutional flows. Contrary to the classic logic that a rise in bond yields penalizes risky assets, BTC continues to advance.

Traditionally, rising yields were supposed to weigh on risk assets. Yet, stocks and Bitcoin are going up. This gap highlights a paradigm shift: investors seem to reject traditional diversification schemes and turn to assets outside the debt-based monetary system.

The rise of spot Bitcoin ETFs, with assets now exceeding 104 billion dollars according to CoinGlass data, illustrates this trend. This rush to BTC is explained by the search for an asset that is both high-performing and politically neutral.

Bitcoin, until now perceived as a speculative asset, is increasingly regarded as a digital equivalent to gold. It appeals due to its independence from monetary policies, its finite supply, and its resilience against macroeconomic instability. The market is beginning to recognize that BTC can embody both a yield asset and a store of value, a dual role that until now seemed contradictory, especially since its volatility is now lower than that of the Nasdaq and S&P 500.

Luc Jose A.

Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d’une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j’ai rejoint l’aventure Cointribune en 2019.
Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l’économie, j’ai pris l’engagement de sensibiliser et d’informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu’elle offre. Je m’efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l’actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.

DISCLAIMER

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.