Much has been made about how stocks and cryptocurrency assets have become correlated ever since President Donald Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs on April 2. This is taken as evidence that the initial proposal was bad — and the subsequent postponement good — for risk assets in general, as might be expected if the main fear is that the tariffs will trigger a recession. Unfortunately, much of the commentary has contained more partisan bluster than cool economic analysis.

A closer look at the timing of the movements in the two asset types suggests a different conclusion — one with troubling uncertainties for the US dollar rather than for international trade and goodwill, or economic recession.