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Bitcoin Could Hit $110,000 Before Dropping to $76,500 as Fed Policy Shifts, Says Arthur Hayes


Bitcoin could surge to $110,000 before pulling back to $76,500, according to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes.

Bitcoin could surge to $110,000 before pulling back to $76,500, according to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes. He attributes this potential rally to the Federal Reserve’s expected transition from quantitative tightening (QT) to quantitative easing (QE), which would inject liquidity into financial markets. Hayes shared his prediction on X, saying, “I bet $BTC hits $110K before it retests $76.5K. The Fed is going from QT to QE for treasuries.”
Bitcoin recently closed above $86,000 on March 23 and climbed past $88,000 the next day. It gained 3.71% to trade at $87,480, while the broader crypto market saw Ethereum rise 4.05% to $2,093, XRP up 3%, and Dogecoin gaining 3.8%. Bitcoin’s market cap increased to $1.727 trillion, and its 24-hour trading volume surged 93% to $18.2 billion. Stablecoin transfers totaled $57.58 billion, making up 94.74% of total crypto trading.
Despite the optimism, some analysts caution that QT is still ongoing, though at a slower pace. “QT is not ‘basically over’ on April 1st. They still have $35B/mo coming off from mortgage-backed securities. They just slowed QT from $60B/mo to $40B/mo,” said Benjamin Cowen, CEO of IntoTheCryptoVerse. However, anticipation of future QE has kept expectations high, with past QE cycles fueling major Bitcoin rallies, including a 1,000% rise from March 2020 to November 2021.

Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, believes Bitcoin may have already hit its local bottom and is now rebounding. He pointed to the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance and President Trump’s flexible position on tariffs as factors boosting confidence. He also highlighted a drop in selling pressure, with U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs recording net inflows of around $744 million last week, including $537 million from BlackRock alone, according to Farside Investors.

Ali Martinez, a crypto analyst, noted that Bitcoin’s transfer volume has fallen from $87 billion to $42 billion in the past month, suggesting that investors are holding their assets rather than selling. Hayes’ predictions have had mixed outcomes; in late February, he anticipated price swings, and Bitcoin later dropped below $80,000 for the first time in over three months. That decline, linked to concerns over trade tariffs, triggered a broader market sell-off, with Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin all losing 20-25% in a week.

Following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Bitcoin’s rise past $85,000 has been seen as a bullish signal. Analyst Emmanuel Cardozo expects liquidity conditions and discussions about a U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve to drive Bitcoin toward $110,000. However, he also warned that a correction to $76,500 remains possible due to market volatility.

With Bitcoin trading around $87,000, investors are watching central bank policies and liquidity trends closely. While the outlook remains positive, market corrections could still happen as traders navigate price fluctuations.

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