Bitcoin never sleeps. While attention is focused on ETFs and geopolitical debates, a silent yet consequential activity is unfolding behind the scenes: longtime BTC holders, long quiet, are reappearing on the radar. Since February, over 4.02 billion dollars in bitcoins have been spent, a signal as intriguing as it is worrying. Far from being just a minor detail, this massive movement of funds reveals ongoing tectonic shifts in the Bitcoin ecosystem.

The Awakening of Dormant Wallets: A Signal to Decode

Glassnode’s analysis highlights a real resurgence of activity from wallets inactive for 3 to 5 years. These investors, often considered strong hands, had so far preferred waiting over action. However, they are now liquidating massively: nearly 2.16 billion dollars in BTC have been spent by this group.

Why now? Is it a loss of confidence or simply arbitrage in the face of historically high prices? Some see it as a bearish signal, others as a mere changing of the guard. But what is certain is that the timing is no coincidence. Bitcoin cycles often reveal their truth through these discreet movements.

Wallets of an intermediate age (1 to 3 years) are also part of this wave: 1.41 billion dollars for the 2-3 year bracket, 450 million for the 1-2 year bracket. In total, this constitutes the fifth largest capital outflow of this cycle, reminiscent of the panic (or strategy?) of March 2023.

The Rumor of a Million per Bitcoin and the Reality of the Present

As these massive flows stir market memory, some continue to dream big. Samson Mow claims that bitcoin could rise to 10 million dollars, but widespread ignorance is holding back its takeoff.

For him, the combo of spot ETFs + halving could trigger an “Omega candle“, a catalyst for a quantum leap toward the million-dollar mark. But this theory has yet to materialize… for now.

Others, like Robert Kiyosaki, play the fear card: an economic crisis would trigger a flight to safe havens, with bitcoin leading the list. In this scenario, the million is not a hypothesis, but an inevitable destination.

However, beyond predictions, the present reminds us that bitcoin remains vulnerable to political cycles. The 2024 surge, propelled by Donald Trump’s arrival and the creation of a national bitcoin reserve, shows that institutional confidence weighs more than prophetic speeches.

What to Prepare for Next?

The comeback of old holders is a form of silent vote. Is it a disengagement or simply a capital rotation toward more dynamic assets? The timing, just after a new historic peak at 111,000 dollars, is striking. These massive sales could also reveal a desire to take profits before a new phase of regulation or a major correction.

In any case, these movements require a shift in perspective for analysts and investors. The era of “HODL at all costs” seems to be giving way to a more nuanced strategy, where both old and new players watch for the same thing: the right moment.

Thus, while prophets speak of a million or chaos, the wallets act. With Donald Trump now backing the Bitcoin Act, all scenarios become imaginable.

Evans S.

Fascinated by Bitcoin since 2017, Evariste has continuously researched the subject. While his initial interest was in trading, he now actively seeks to understand all advances centered on cryptocurrencies. As an editor, he strives to consistently deliver high-quality work that reflects the state of the sector as a whole.

DISCLAIMER

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.