Ever since it launched in 2009, Bitcoin(CRYPTO: BTC) has stood alone as the world’s most valuable cryptocurrency. More than 15 years later, it still accounts for a whopping 60% of the value of the cryptocurrency market.
However, the tech industry is filled with stories of industry leaders that once reigned supreme, but later gave ground to smaller, more nimble competitors. The one competitor that’s been getting a lot of buzz recently is XRP(CRYPTO: XRP), the cryptocurrency formerly known as Ripple.
In terms of market cap, it seems inconceivable that XRP could ever overtake Bitcoin. Despite being the world’s fourth-largest cryptocurrency, with a $100 billion market cap, XRP is absolutely dwarfed by Bitcoin, which still trades at a hefty $1.5 trillion valuation.
Let’s do some simple math here. XRP would need to skyrocket in value by a multiple of 15x to have any chance of overtaking Bitcoin. And, at the same time that XRP is skyrocketing in value, Bitcoin would essentially need to trade flat, so that XRP can catch up.
Image source: Getty Images.
That’s simply not probable, given that Bitcoin traditionally leads the market higher or lower. We’re seeing this right now with the current tariff turbulence. So, XRP would need some sort of extraordinary catalyst to help it accelerate in value faster than Bitcoin.
So what could be some of the catalysts to make that growth happen? Some have suggested that the imminent launch of new spot ETFs might attract new investor inflows, sending the price of XRP soaring. Others have suggested that the recent launch of a new stablecoin by Ripple, the company behind the XRP token, might be enough to send XRP skyrocketing to new levels.
Let’s shift the argument a bit, and define “overtake” to mean turning in superior market performance over time. This is a much more likely scenario, given that XRP was on an absolute tear until recently. When XRP hit a new 52-week high of $3.39 in January, it was up a mind-boggling 600%. For much of 2025, XRP was the top-performing cryptocurrency.
But just how sustainable is this performance by XRP? After all, XRP’s meteoric rise has largely been linked to the pro-crypto optimism surrounding the Trump administration. All of XRP’s gains occurred after the election of President Donald Trump in November. For months ahead of the election, XRP was trading for a paltry $0.50 and going absolutely nowhere fast.
There have been some big wins already for Ripple and XRP as a result of the Trump White House’s crypto policies. For one, the SEC has dropped a long-running lawsuit against Ripple that alleged that XRP was a security, rather than a commodity. The Trump White House was also careful to include XRP as part of its new U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile, while inviting Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse to events such as the White House Crypto Summit in March.
But these events now appear to be priced into XRP. Since January, XRP is down a very sobering 45%. It has proven to be less than immune to the risk and uncertainty of global trade tariffs.
There is one area, however, where XRP could potentially “overtake” Bitcoin, and that is when it comes to utility. Utility simply refers to the possible use cases of a cryptocurrency. If XRP has more use cases than Bitcoin, then it is possible to say that it has a higher utility.
While Bitcoin was originally created as a “peer-to-peer electronic cash system,” it has largely failed to deliver on this promise. In other words, when was the last time you ever paid for something with Bitcoin? Over the past decade, Bitcoin has largely transformed from being a “medium of exchange” to being a “store of value.” You buy Bitcoin, and you hoard it, just like gold.
In contrast, XRP was designed as a cryptocurrency that could facilitate cross-border payment flows. Using blockchain technology, you can use XRP to send money across borders to different countries, and you can do so much faster and more cheaply than with traditional financial networks.
Over time, XRP has steadily added to its core functionality, such that major financial institutions around the world are now using XRP to send very complex payments across borders. The only problem here, of course, is that global tariffs and a global trade war could curtail all of this.
At the end of the day, it’s hard to see how XRP will ever overtake Bitcoin. Yes, there’s a lot to like about XRP, and its blistering growth since the November election has been eye-opening. But keep this in mind: In its entire 12-year history, XRP has never once traded above $4. The all-time high is a rather pedestrian $3.84, which it briefly hit in 2018.
So if you’re expecting XRP to rise 15 times in value anytime soon, you might need to readjust your expectations. A more reasonable estimate would be doubling in value, from its current price of $2 to a future price of $4. That’s impressive, especially if it happens quickly, but it would still probably leave XRP trailing Bitcoin by more than $1 trillion when it comes to overall market cap.
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Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin and XRP. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin and XRP. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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